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Sali Kecil, a shining exemplar of preserving nature amid limitations

“All types of fish are here in Sali. Hence, all fishermen from Ternate, from Bacan, come here, because here you can say it is like a fish center.”

At first glance, a small island of Sali Kecil, located between Bacan Island on the west side and Halmahera Island in the east, does not look any different from the other coastal villages.

However, once we first set foot on a wooden pier that is also the main gate of Sali Kecil Village in North Maluku Province, its beauty and uniqueness will be revealed.

As we walk slowly on the wooden pier approaching the gate, colorful small fishes swimming swiftly along the sidelines of the coral reefs greet us.

The seawater is so clear that the tropical fish cannot escape our sight. Far behind the village gate and residential area, a stretch of forest can be seen along with the faint sounds of birds audible from a distance.

However, Ibrahim Nasir, a Sali Kecil Village resident, who participated in receiving ANTARA and others partaking in the Maluku EcoNusa Expedition last October, stated that the healthy coral reefs and the variety of tropical fish swimming around them are not something unique to them.

It is part of the villagers’ increasing awareness to protect the environment and to reduce waste in their waters in accordance with the local government’s recommendations.

The local fisheries office had urged villagers to protect Sali Kecil Island’s coral reefs, as they hold vast potential.

The beauty of Sali Kecil Island is alluring. It is not surprising if four-star resorts also operate there, as the islands there are included as an underwater paradise for divers.

“There are people, who are already aware of that (potential). Hence, we take care of each other,” Ibrahim, who works as a fisherman, stated.

Not only are they striving to reduce waste dumped into the sea, but the villagers have also begun prohibiting the use of fishing gear, such as bombs and fishing trawlers, that can damage coral reefs.

However, Ibrahim believes that the people’s awareness to protect their environment did not come instantly but involved a long process.

“In the past, many fishermen used trawlers to catch fish, but now, many local fishermen have begun abandoning this environmentally unfriendly practice,” Ibrahim noted.

As a result, Sali Kecil’s marine wealth has been preserved and has also become a blessing for other fishermen from around the island.

“All types of fish are here in Sali. Hence, all fishermen from Ternate, from Bacan, come here, because here you can say it is like a fish center. We have many types of fish here,” Ibrahim stated.

In order to support sustainable fishing, Ibrahim explained that local fishermen have their own plans of sea fishing. They usually fish at a specified location for twice a month before moving to another location to follow the same pattern.

Green forest

Sali Kecil Island not only consists of sea but also green forests that are home to wild birds and deer that have co-existed with the people since long.

The sight of deer descending to the coast and drinking seawater before sunset is not unusual for the residents of Sali Kecil Village. However, it is a special experience for those who have just visited the island.

Local villagers still hunt deer, but usually, they seek permission from elders of the village, as they believe it would be easier to find prey.

However, now, the position of the community elders in Sali Kecil lies vacant. Ibrahim noted that in exchange, they sought permission from the guardian of the sacred tomb, which the villagers believed was the final resting place for their ancestors, thought to have come from Tidore.

Not only that, the community also limits the land cleared for plantations. There are several parts of the forest in Sali Kecil that cannot be used as plantations for planting coconut, which is the main commodity for producing copra.

According to Ibrahim, the restriction was applied since vast acres of land were cleared by the previous generation, and it can still be used today.

Limitations

Natural resources and ecosystems still being maintained is certainly a blessing for the people of Sali Kecil Village. It is the source of their well-being.

However, akin to other small villages in Indonesia, although they are rich in natural resources and their ecosystem is still preserved, they still await help from the government to lead a safe and peaceful life.

Limited transportation at that location creates difficulties for the people living there. One of the problems that arise is when the community experiences acute health problems, while Sali Kecil has only one health worker serving as a midwife.

In fact, villagers often need urgent medical assistance. To avail health services, they have to cross the sea by boat to the nearest big island, Bacan Island.

Hamid Baca, one of the community leaders in Sali Kecil, stated that when a villager has to give birth in the middle of the night, they have to bring a ketinting, or a kind of small boat, to Bacan. Sometimes, the midwife had to bring the patient to East Bacan Sub-district on her boat, which was actually faster than the other residents.

“We were forced to leave in a small boat,” Hamid stated.

In fact, getting to Bacan aboard a ketinting takes about three hours. Meanwhile, using a fast boat takes up to an hour, Hamid noted.

School children there also face the problem of transportation. With only one elementary school in Sali Kecil, children of the village have to cross the sea to receive higher education.

The elementary school building on the island is still under repair after being damaged by the earthquake that rocked the South Halmahera area in 2019.

Despite some parts of the school building being dilapidated, the teachers there decided to conduct face-to-face teaching and learning activities, as the small island is included in the COVID-19 green zone in South Halmahera Regency.

“We, who live in these remote islands, face some difficulties to reach the regency, which located far away. Hence, we need the government’s assistance to manage social services here, especially for healthcare facilities,” Hamid expounded.

In the wake of such problems and difficulties, Hamid is optimistic that the message from small islands, such as Sali Kecil, can be conveyed to the relevant authorities to help those who survive to protect nature in the midst of limitations.

This story, originally published by ANTARA News, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters. 

Too Hot to Handle

CLIMATE anxiety is real – and it’s going to get far worse according to the latest report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of scientists backed by the United Nations.

The report, approved by 195 governments in a virtual meeting early this month and based on more than 14,000 studies, confirms that the world is surely and irrevocably warming – even though some politicians and industrialists may still deny it.

More alarming is that, as the IPCC report points out, even if governments were to drastically and immediately cut carbon emissions today, we can no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years.

Total global warming, says the report, is likely to rise by around 1.5°C within the next two decades and along with that hotter future comes its attendant effects.

This means that heatwaves, such as the one that slammed into the Pacific North-West of Canada and the United States and sent temperatures into the high 40s a few months ago, as well as wildfires in Europe, Nordic countries and Siberia, and deluges in Germany and China will become more frequent.

The most damning aspect of the IPCC report, however, is that humans are the only ones to be blamed for this hot mess we’re in, with the rise in global average temperatures being driven by countries burning fossil fuels, clearing forests and spewing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane into the air.

If that isn’t enough, a paper recently published in the Nature Climate Change journal suggests that a crucial ocean circulation system in the Atlantic called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), which helps to stabilise the climate in Europe, is showing signs of slowing down.

Although it is yet to be established if this is linked to climate change, the slowing, if proven true, further imperils the state of our planet.

In the words of the United Nations secretary-general António Guterres, this is nothing less than a “code red for humanity”.

Apocalypse now?

While Malaysia seems to have escaped for now much of the heat-induced stress – the south-west monsoon is even wetter this year so we are not expecting to see haze from Indonesia – global warming will affect Malaysia.

This is because much of the weather in Malaysia, particularly Peninsular Malaysia, is influenced by the monsoon system.

Universiti Malaya climate expert Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah says Malaysia is on a maritime continent, an important component of the whole global circulation heat engine.

“We are also influenced by what happens – not only in the Northern Hemisphere, especially during the north-east Monsoon, but also by the Southern Hemisphere related to the south-west monsoon.

“So any warming or cooling in the mid-latitudes, especially during the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere’s winter, will have an impact in weakening or strengthening our monsoons,” he says in an interview last week.

Should this happen, it will have an effect on the biological productivity of the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, which are very much influenced by the monsoon.

Normally, a tropical ocean is less productive biologically compared with the colder oceans in the midlatitudes and polar regions – except for the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea.

“This (effect on the monsoon) will have a grave consequence for the fisheries and the region’s food security,” explains Prof Azizan, pointing out that the marine ecosystem in these areas is already under stress from overfishing.

“Global warming will further stress these seas and the ecosystems,” he adds.

Prof Azizan, who is from UM’s Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences, says being in the humid tropics, he does not anticipate prolonged drought in Malaysia, such as that experienced by northern Australia that is associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or Enso.

“We may have a few weeks without rain around February which is our normal drier period. This will be further enhanced if Enso is also present,” he says.

However, Prof Azizan points out that in a warmer world, the atmosphere will be able to store more water vapour, usually translating to stronger thunderstorms and more rainfall.

“Depending on the duration of the rain, this can result in frequent flash floods or, if the duration is longer, river flooding (akin to) the 2014 flood,” he says.

The 2014 flood, which affected over 200,000 people and killed 21, devastated parts of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang on the East Coast, as well as other states.

It also damaged infrastructure, including homes, highways and rail lines, to the tune of billions of ringgit.

The stronger monsoon in the region is the north-east monsoon, which lasts from November to February and is also the time of heavy rain for Peninsular Malaysia.

Most weather models, says Prof Azizan, are predicting a weaker north-east monsoon and a stronger south-west monsoon from global warming.

“That is why regionally, they are predicting that Indonesia south of the equator will experience a drier climate in the future due to a weakened north-east monsoon,” he says.

Melting pot

While the present IPCC report approximates a sea rise level of about 3.2mm per year from glaciers melting in Greenland and the Antarctic continent, many glaciologists, says Prof Azizan, feel this to be an underestimation.

He says there are two components to rising sea level, one which is about 50% due to water expansion as ocean temperatures rise, and the other is from glacier melting.

“However, many Antarctic glaciologists think that this (the IPCC forecast) is an underestimate due to the rapid melting of the West Antarctic ice shelf that is now unstable.

“This may contribute a further 7m of sea level rise if all of the West Antarctic ice shelf were to melt away,” he says.

Also being threatened are the mangroves, seagrass and coral species along Malaysia’s coastlines – already these are under stress from development and, before the days of Covid-19, overtourism. 

Such damage basically leaves the country’s coasts “naked” and vulnerable to floods and erosion.

Pointing out that Malaysia is a “mega biodiversity region”, Prof Azizan says this area hosts about 70% of the world’s mangrove, coral and seagrass species.

“So our ocean is an important biodiversity refugia that is under threat from global ocean warming and acidification.

“While we tend to focus on conserving our terrestrial biodiversity like our rainforests, it is our ocean that plays an important refugia for global ocean biodiversity.”

(Refugia refers to an area in which organisms can survive unfavourable conditions, especially glaciation.)

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang, who authored a number of scientific papers cited in the IPCC report, says it does not specifically provide information on the future climate of a particular country.

However, he says that “Malaysia is projected to experience increased extreme climate events in future: “These include more heatwaves, more droughts and floods as well as rising sea levels in decades to come if there is no deep cut to greenhouse gas emissions soon,” he says.

Prof Fredolin is the review editor for Chapter 10 of the IPCC report as well as a contributing author of the Atlas Chapter.

Lest any climate sceptic tries to throw doubt on the report, Prof Fredolin says it represents a credible body of scientific evidence on the climate system that is based on a comprehensive and holistic, open, robust and transparent assessment of related published literature, involving over 1,000 authors and editors.

Although the Nature Climate Change paper was not assessed in the IPCC report having been published recently, Prof Fredolin believes that the collapse of the MOC will likely trigger an abrupt change in regional weather, including Malaysia’s, which is regulated by the monsoon cycle.

“I believe there is no particular paper addressing how this affects climate in Malaysia but this would be an interesting issue to investigate,” he says.

However, Prof Azizan believes that changes in the Atlantic will have only an indirect impact on Malaysia.

“The more direct impact will be changes in the Pacific and also the Indian oceans.”

No more talking shop

With slightly more than two months to go before the Glasgow Climate Change Conference at the end of October, the IPCC report has upped public expectation for the thousands of negotiators, politicians and diplomats to at last come to an understanding.

However, despite the fact that humanity’s survival depends on it and despite high hopes and criticisms, each time the conference has a dismal record of not performing up to expectations.

Should an effective agreement fail to materialise from Glasgow, current policies being pursued by governments will likely push warming up by 3°C by the end of the century, warns the IPCC report. In contrast, the goal of the much hailed Paris Agreement of 2015 has been to limit global warming to well below 2°C or preferably 1.5°C compared with preindustrial levels.

“The current pledges under the Paris Agreement won’t be able to cap the warming under 1.5°C and 2°C. More impact from extreme climate is expected in future decades,” agrees Prof Fredolin.

The report, he adds, also indicated that without deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold is projected to be breached between 2021 and 2040 – likely in 2030 – and 2°C in 2050.

However, scientists behind the IPCC report believe there is still a chance to avoid the more harrowing effects of global warming by preventing the planet from getting even hotter.

According to the report, if a coordinated effort among countries can head off CO2 emissions by 2050 by moving away from fossil fuels and removing carbon from the atmosphere, this will allow global warming to likely halt at the level of around 1.5°C.

Failure is not an option because as many of the young climate strikers like to remind us – there is no Planet B.

Eye on the future

Malaysia’s main priority now, according to Prof Azizan, is to plan a more climate-resilient, sustainable socioeconomic strategy.

“This is to anticipate a soft landing for our nation and region in the future as the world warms up,” he says.

He argues that even if Malaysia is not a major emitter of greenhouse gas, the existing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere have already locked in a future global warming of 1°C to 2°C.

“So the question is more about how much warming is acceptable to maintain our status quo without any major climate shift and to maintain the ecosystem that we are familiar with or adapted to,” he says.

The 10 biggest emitters of greenhouse gases (in descending order) are China, the United States, the European Union, India, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Iran and Canada.

Prof Fredolin says given the fact that Malaysia’s emissions contribute less than 1% to total global emissions, the focus should be on adaptation measures in increasing climate resilience.

“Having said this, of course, the country should enhance mitigation measures consistent with what is required by the Paris Agreement.”

Both Prof Fredolin and Prof Azizan agree on one thing: the country has to quickly come up with a national adaptation plan or strategy.

While Environment and Water Ministry secretary-general Datuk Seri Zaini Ujang told The Star in April that the government is coming up with specific legislation and policies to tackle climate change, there is currently no national adaptation plan.

“We need to look into water and food security strategies, using the climate scenarios of a warmer world,” says Prof Azizan, suggesting that Malaysia uses the Enso as a natural scenario to study how the ecosystem responds and from this, plan how coastal, rural and urban areas can adapt to changes.

Malaysia, he points out, needs to plan up to 30 years into the future.

“This is so that we can slowly build the necessary investment and governance structure at the macro level based on a number of scenarios – from optimal to a worst case scenario – and test how our ecosystem and socioeconomic system adapt.

“The bottom line is the world is getting warmer and we have no choice but to plan for it so that we can avoid a climate crisis in the future.”

IPCC Simulation. Picture by REUTERS

This story, originally published by the The Star, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters. 

Surviving sea-level rise

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns humans are unequivocally warming the planet, and that is triggering rapid changes in the atmosphere, oceans, and polar regions, and increasing extreme weather around the world.

The IPCC released the Sixth Assessment Report on August 9th, 2021. The report from 234 scientists from around the globe summarized the current climate research on how the Earth is changing as temperatures rise and the impacts for the future. I was one of these scientists.

The facts about climate change have been clear for a long time, with the evidence just continuing to grow. The warning signs of climate change have been clear over the last decade, with each new emergency topping its precedent.

The earth as we know it has become radically altered by our misuse of fossil fuels and natural resources. Our lives and livelihoods are in danger of forever suffering from the consequence of our own actions.

Global temperatures are rising, producing more droughts and wildfires, increasing the intensity of storms, causing catastrophic flooding, and raising sea levels.

Rising seas increase the vulnerability of cities and the associated infrastructure that line many coastlines around the world because of flooding, erosion, destruction of coastal ecosystems and contamination of surface and ground waters.

Future sea-level rise will affect every coastal nation. But in the coming decades, the greatest effects will be felt in Asia, due to the number of people living in the continent’s low-lying coastal areas. Mainland China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are home to the most people on land projected to be below average annual coastal flood levels by 2050. Together, those six nations account for roughly 75% of the 300 million people on land facing the same vulnerability at mid-century.

Global sea level is rising at a rate unmatched for at least thousands of years.

Global sea level is rising primarily because global temperatures are rising, causing ocean water to expand and land ice to melt. About a third of its current rise comes from thermal expansion — when water grows in volume as it warms. The rest comes from the melting of ice on land.

In the 20th century the melting has been mostly limited to mountain glaciers, but the big concern for the future is the melting of giant ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. If all the ice in Greenland melted, it would raise global sea levels by seven metres.

Antarctica is the existential threat to coastal nations. It is twice the size of Australia (over 20,000 times the size of Singapore!), two to three kilometres thick, and has enough water to raise sea levels by 65 metres. That is more than the height of the Singapore Art Science Museum and the Super Tree of Gardens by the Bay. If just a few per cent of the Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, it would cause devastating impacts.

Ominously, satellite-based measurements of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets show that this melting is accelerating. Greenland is now the biggest contributor to global sea-level rise. Greenland went from dumping only about 51 billion tonnes of ice into the ocean between 1980 and 1990, to losing 286 billion tonnes between 2010 and 2018.

That is a staggering 76 trillion gallons of water added to the ocean each year, which is equivalent to 114 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

Sea-level rise through 2050 is fixed.  Regardless of how quickly nations can lower emissions, the world is looking at about 15 to 30 centimeters of sea-level rise through the middle of the century due to the long timescales response of the oceans and ice sheets to warming. Sea-level rise is expected to continue slowly for centuries, even under a stable climate. This so-called ‘commitment to sea-level rise’ leads to a long-term obligation to adapt to sea-level rise, which coastal policy and practice is only just beginning to recognize.

Beyond 2050, sea-level rise becomes increasingly susceptible to the world’s emissions choices. If countries choose to continue their current paths, greenhouse gas emissions will likely bring 3 to 4 C of warming by 2100, and sea level rise of up to 1 meter. 

Under the most extreme emissions scenario, rapid ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica is possible leading to sea level rise approaching 2 meters by the end of this century. At this point sea-level rise is not an existential threat but a reality to coastal nations such as Singapore.

But there is hope to survive sea-level rise.

The IPCC report has shown a growing understanding of the causes of climate change and their solutions. 

A 2 C warmer world, consistent with the Paris Agreement, would see lower sea level rise, most likely about half a meter by 2100.

What’s more, if the more the world limits its greenhouse gas emissions, the chance of triggering rapid ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica is much lower.

But time is running out to meet the ambitious goal laid out in Paris Agreement to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

We must hold our elected official accountable to the promises they have made on climate change. Indeed, we may require reductions far more than those that have been pledged by nations in the run up to COP26, the United Nations climate summit to be held in Glasgow in November.

Fortunately, attitudes across the world towards climate change have shifted in the last decade. Where once there was ignorance, inattention, and disbelief about climate change, now there is concern. 

Individually, rather than depriving ourselves, we should instead be adding to our lives to contribute to the fight to tackle the climate emergency. These can include things like volunteering, activism, and spreading awareness to other people about the effects that climate change can have on our lives. All these positive solutions coupled with attempting to live a more sustainable life, can make all the difference.

Technological advances are also a cause for hope. Solar and wind energy and battery technology are now far cheaper, and their efficiency is getting better and better. New technologies, including artificial intelligence, now also offer the prospect of huge improvements in the energy efficiency of transport systems, building operations, manufacturing processes and food production. 

Ways to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere also offer hope, not only of reaching net zero, but in eventually reversing climate change.  

The planet’s oceans, forests and grasslands take up huge quantities of carbon dioxide through photosynthesis, much of which is stored in plants or in the soil, creating major global carbon sinks.  

By preserving and expanding forests, these sinks could be made larger.  Taking greater care of oceans and land is not only important for preserving biodiversity but is also a key part of climate change mitigation. 

I believe that, for all the challenges that we face, climate change is the one that will define the contours of this century more dramatically perhaps than the others.

Surviving sea-level rise is going to change our lives; it is going to change the way we regard ourselves on the planet; it will lead to a happier, more equitable way of life for all of humankind. 

Only then can we leave behind a world that is worthy of our children, where there is reduced conflict and greater cooperation – a world marked not by human suffering, but by human progress.

This story, written by Professor Benjamin P. Horton, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

Words of Comfort For The Eco-Anxious

Fernanda Buriola was born and raised in São Paulo, Brazil but now lives in Luxembourg. She has been writing for her own newsletter, Manhãs, for almost six years. Previous contributions were featured in the french magazine Zéphyr. She is most interested in writing about behavioral and natural science.

I was scrolling through Instagram, trying to escape reality for just five minutes, when I first came across the word “eco-anxiety.” I’d never heard the term before. Yet, the more I learn about it, the more I recognize the feeling.

I’ve been following Finn Harries for a long time now. He’s a designer and environmentalist. I don’t know anything about design, but I like his content on how architecture can respond to the climate crisis. Last summer, he posted the following message: “I’ve been battling with my mental health over the last couple of months. A big part of it is driven by the environmental crisis we’re facing. This even has its own term: eco-anxiety.”

Seeing Harries’s post, I paused to consider if I myself was eco-anxious. Of course, I care about nature, but I don’t lose any sleep over it. I figured climate scientists on the front line were the ones having a hard time, witnessing the realities of climate change on a daily basis and not being listened to. I never realized I could be having a hard time too.

Pain For The World

Lynda Sullivan, an Earth activist from North Ireland, told me she defines eco-anxiety as a “pain for the world.” The American Psychological Association, a reference for psychologists, defines it as “a chronic fear of environmental doom.”

According to a survey conducted by Sintra, a Finnish Innovation Fund, in 2019, a quarter of Finns experience some form of climate anxiety. Back in January, a YouGov poll said seven in ten young adults aged 18-24 in the U.K. were more worried about climate change than the previous year.

Official data and studies on eco-anxiety remain scarce. Nevertheless, in the last decade discussions on the effect of climate change on our mental health have finally started to get the attention they deserve.

Am I Eco-Anxious?

I’ve been struggling with my mental health since I moved to Belgium from São Paulo eight years ago, but I can’t tell how much of my struggle has been linked to the climate crisis. Worries about the world blend with worries about my own life.

When I was younger, I wanted to be a scientist of some sort: an ecologist, perhaps, or an oceanographer. I imagined myself learning more and more about nature, not only because Biology was my favorite subject at school, but also because a career as a scientist meant I could do something to reverse climate change.

I also wanted to be like my cousin. She is a biologist and the older sister I never had.

When it was time to decide on a career, I chose to act against climate change professionally by studying Biology. It was my first, small attempt to change the world—a desire common among young adults, my therapist tells me.

Over time I realized that nature doesn’t need saving—we do. Planet Earth will continue to spin, ecosystems will eventually regenerate, though maybe not back to how they were before. Now I fear what will happen to people, starting with the most vulnerable. Global warming, I realize, is a social issue.

Perhaps I would have finished my studies if I had been in Brazil, but in Europe, it proved almost impossible without the support I needed. At university—in a new country and culture, speaking a new language—I was at my most depressed. Completely alone, academic frustration merged with personal worries.

“I can do so much and yet so little. Does that make me eco-anxious?”

You can’t take care of the world if you’re on the wrong path. I changed mine—from Biology to Communication—yet my place on this planet remained a mystery. It is hard to feel useless when there is so much to be done.

As a response to my concerns, I put a lot of energy into controlling what was within my reach: what I consume, the waste I produce, what I eat. Everyday choices can leave me anxious and feeling guilty. There are days when this turns into hopelessness. I can do so much and yet so little. Does that make me eco-anxious?

A Spectrum of Emotions

I spoke to Caroline Hickman, a climate psychologist and researcher at the University of Bath, about my life choices, slightly compulsive recycling, and how my everyday fears for the planet, though scary, seem normal to me. Climate change was on the news before I was born, after all.

Hickman kindly explained that “anxiety is just one of the feelings people are dealing with [about climate change]. People are also struggling with despair and frustration and hopelessness.” So eco-anxiety might not be the best term; it is a catch-all for a whole range of feelings.

“Eco-anxiety is unlike ordinary anxiety, like worrying about finances or an exam, because this particular problem is not going away.”

If I can’t make the big important decisions, what can I do? That question can trigger in me a meticulous rethink of what I really want and need given the impact on the planet, or make me walk multiple blocks until I find that zero-waste store. But sometimes all the overthinking pauses and I find myself buying food in the closest shop. “These feelings come and go,” Hickman reveals, “but they don’t go away.”

Eco-anxiety is unlike ordinary anxiety, like worrying about finances or an exam, because this particular problem is not going away. Take the recent pandemic, for instance; no matter its impact on our lives, we are still capable of imagining a world without COVID-19 once a vaccine is developed. Similarly, most disgruntled employees can imagine getting a promotion or switching jobs. Life works in phases, usually. But if we can’t curb our carbon emissions fast, global warming will be a life-long, worsening reality for many of us, especially us younger generations, making it nearly impossible to envision a future without climate change.

A Normal Reaction to a Sick Planet

“Climate anxiety can be a problem if it is so intense that a person may come paralyzed,” researcher and professor of environmental theology at the University of Helsinki, Dr Panu Pihkala, wrote in a 2019 report, “but climate anxiety is not primarily a disease.”

Nonetheless, the report lists severe symptoms (states of depression, serious insomnia, compulsive behavior) and mild ones (occasional insomnia, effects on mood, milder symptomatic behavior). “Climate anxiety is combined in people’s lives with other anxieties,” writes Dr Pihkala, “such as those related to choosing a profession.” In case something else is causing deeper anxiety in a person’s life, he argues, climate anxiety should be taken seriously to better evaluate the overall situation.

In the U.K., Professor Hickman is now working to increase awareness among psychotherapists, doctors and teachers “so they can understand people’s distress through the lens of climate emergency.”

Action is no doubt the best solution, for the planet and ourselves. Putting ourselves to work can ease our minds. But are there other forms of self-care? As an exceedingly self-critical person, I was relieved to hear Hickman say we shouldn’t criticize ourselves for feeling out of balance. Easing up on the self-criticism, she told me, is a genuine way to look after ourselves.

“When feeling blue, it’s good to remember we are doing what we can. Or at least trying to.”

Like everyone I’ve talked to, she also agrees that eco-anxiety is a normal and understandable reaction to the problems we are facing. If you are in the habit of consuming information on climate change, it’s only natural you feel anxious about the existential threat it poses to humanity. “It is the people who are not anxious and angry that I would worry about,” she says.

When feeling blue, I believe, it’s good to remember we are doing what we can. Or at least trying to.

For Hickman, that means raising awareness about the emotional challenges of climate change. That, she tells me, is how she deals with her own anxieties.

In the final line of his Instagram post, Harries wrote: “We may be in a time of crisis but I’ve realized looking after our mental health and building our resilience is the first step to long term, meaningful action.”

This story, originally published by Are We Europe, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

The Philippines lags in global push for renewables

The Philippines has been slow to action and way behind its commitments to global initiatives on reducing or avoiding gas emissions harmful to the environment, despite the existence of many laws seeking to promote the use of renewable energy sources. 

Instead of attracting investors in power projects run by non fossil fuels, the current regulatory environment has only discouraged foreign capital and even pushed big local players to put their money outside the country where the investment climate for renewable energy is considered “more hospitable.”

Globally, a lot is riding not only on turning to renewable forms of electricity generation, but also on moving away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil, and even natural gas, as the entire world has its sights on the 2050 goal of having greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduced to a net zero and limit global warming.

Against this backdrop, the Philippines appears to be gripped by inertia, especially when viewed along with the equally lofty goals of providing access to electricity for all and providing each household a choice of consuming electricity produced by renewable energy technology.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), based in France, notes that more and more countries are announcing pledges to achieve net-zero emissions—or balancing the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere with the amount of emission removed or avoided.

But the IEA says that even if fully achieved, these pledges so far put forward by governments fall well short of what is required to achieve net zero by 2050.

For the Philippines, the government in April 2021 committed to the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change to reduce and avoid 75 percent of GHG emissions for the period 2020-2030. This goal covers the sectors of energy, transport, industry, agriculture and wastes.

The big “but” is that only 2.71 percentage point of this goal is unconditional, which the Philippines can do on its own. The main part, or 72.29 percentage points, is conditional. This means that its policies and measures will have to conform with the Paris Agreement, the international treaty on climate change adopted in 2015.

Legal framework

Thus far, the Philippines’ toolbox that is helping these efforts include the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001, the Biofuels Act of 2006, the Renewable Energy Act of 2008, the Climate Change Act of 2009, and the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act.

Last month, amid mounting criticism of failing to address a rising threat of power shortage, the Department of Energy (DOE) said that over the past five years, it had completed the mechanisms under the Renewable Energy Act to facilitate greater private sector investments in renewables. These include the traditional ones—hydro and geothermal—as well as solar photovoltaic, wind and biomass.

One facet of this that the DOE is drumming up is the participation of consumers by producing on their own the electricity that they need, or to choose renewable energy as the source of electricity delivered to their premises.  

The mechanisms, the DOE said, include the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) policy, Green Energy Option Program (GEOP) policy and Enhanced Net-Metering System. These three, among others, are geared toward achieving a 35-percent share of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix by 2030. 

The RPS is a market-based policy mechanism that requires power utilities to increase the use of renewable energy by 1 percent a year beginning in 2020 until 2030. The GEOP provides end-users the option to choose renewable energy facilities as their source of energy. Meanwhile, the net metering program enables ordinary electricity consumers to become a “prosumer,” with the ability to generate electricity for their own consumption and sell any excess generation to the distribution grid.

Wrong direction

According to Noel Estoperez, professor at Mindanao State University’s Iligan Institute of Technology, power generation using renewable energy started in the Philippines in 1913 with the 560-kilowatt Camp John Hay hydroelectric power plant that was developed by missionaries. As this flourished, hydro power was nationalized 23 years later through the law that also created National Power Corp. (Napocor).

Geothermal power came much later in 1979 in Tiwi, Albay. According to Guido Delgado, former president of Napocor, this facility that was initially rated at 55 megawatts and three years later at 330 MW, took 12 years to achieve commercial operations starting from a ceremonial lighting held in 1967.

After decades of incubation as a technology, solar and wind power started delivering to the Philippine grid in 2005. Biomass followed suit in 2009.

But in the Philippine Energy Plan 2018-2040, which was not finalized until November 2020, the energy department reiterates its stance of maintaining a “technology neutral approach” for an optimal energy mix.

This is explained as giving priority to “a reliable, sustainable and affordable energy mix” that will meet the country’s supply needs.

As of 2020, the share of renewable energy in the power mix was 29.2 percent, or 6,825 MW out of 23,410 MW of dependable generating capacity. The DOE defines dependable capacity as the capacity that “can be relied upon” or the performance that a power plant can actually deliver vis-à-vis its installed or nameplate capacity. This was a reduction from 32.5 percent in 2005 when solar and wind debuted in the mix and total dependable capacity across the archipelago was 13,595 MW.

Over the same 15-year period, the share of coal-fired power plants alone jumped to 43.8 percent (10,245 MW) from 25.2 percent (3,432 MW). Apparently, coal-based power may not be ecologically sustainable, but it is reliable and affordable.

Coal-based plants run round the clock as baseload facilities to cover the minimum demand while renewable energy facilities are dispatched mid-merit at best, to augment the baseload output when consumption kicks up. Also, power produced by coal-based energy arguably remains to be the lowest-cost for consumers.

Oil-based power plants—mainly used in small islands and also for additional capacity when demand peaks—accounted for 13 percent (3,054 MW) in 2020. In 2005, oil’s share was higher at 22.4 percent (3,403 MW). 

Rounding up the fossil fuels that fire up generators is natural gas—also used for baseload plants—which represented 14 percent of total dependable capacity in 2020 (3,286 MW), going down from 19.9 percent (2,703 MW) in 2005.

In terms of actual output, renewable energy technologies accounted for 21.2 percent or 21,609 gigawatt-hours out of a total of 101,609 gWh in 2020. This was lower than the 32.4-percent share in 2005, when renewables generated 18,609 gWh out of a total of 56,568 gWh. That was the first year when renewables were part of the power generation mix, with a combined 19 gWh from solar and wind. Biomass power plants came online only in 2009.

Policy backlash

This technology-neutral policy is, in fact, a double-edge sword. On the one hand, neutrality means not promoting any technology such as renewables. The result is the end of subsidies for renewable energy platforms, particularly solar and wind power, at a time of healthy investor interest.

As recently as 2019, Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi was reiterating that power-generation projects should be competitive rather than dependent on incentives such as the Energy Regulatory Commission-approved Feed-in Tariff rates and guaranteed dispatch—which are forms of government subsidy.

One result of this policy materialized in the form of big renewable energy facilities abroad that are backed by local companies, and foreign companies looking at other markets instead of the Philippines. 

In April 2019, the Ayala group’s power generation platform AC Energy (Acen) marked the commercial operation of its first project in Vietnam. This was the $294-million, 330-MW Ninh Thuan solar farm, a joint venture with Vietnamese partner BIM Group.

Fernando Zobel de Ayala, president of Ayala Corp., who attended the ceremonial switch on, described the project as “a very large and meaningful investment” for Acen.

“Vietnam’s government has been very aggressive in attracting investments in renewables, particularly solar and wind,” Zobel said back then, noting that the Ninh Thuan facility was part of a renewable energy boom in Vietnam.

Eric Francia, president and chief executive of Acen,  would be echoing this as recently as last month, when he said: “Vietnam is an ideal place for sustainable investments as it leads the race to clean energy transition in the post-COVID world.” 

Over the next two years from the inauguration of the Ninh Thuan solar farm, Acen would announce renewable energy-related partnerships in India and Australia.

Other Philippine players such as the Aboitiz group are taking steps in the same direction. Aboitiz Power Corp., which had also explored Vietnam, is looking at opportunities in Indonesia.

More coal plants  

The Philippines’ policy of neutrality in power generation technology, on the other hand, also means not discouraging any technology such as coal-fired plants. Advocacy groups like the Center for Energy, Ecology and Development call for a ban, despite the coal industry flexing “clean coal technology” innovations through high-efficiency, low-emission generators in tandem with “carbon capture storage and utilization.”

Also in 2019, Cusi told the committee on appropriations at the House of Representatives that a “moratorium on any technology is a disservice to our country.” On Oct. 27, 2020, the DOE chief would announce at an international forum that the government has decided on a moratorium on new coal projects.

The DOE would take almost three months, releasing in mid-January 2021 a written advisory that spelled out the policy. The umbrella group Power for People (P4P) Coalition finds this “underwhelming” considering that the ban was about no longer accepting new applications for endorsement of coal projects, instead of outrightly disallowing the construction of any new coal-fired facility.

According to P4P, there are at least 8,070 MW of coal-based generating capacity in the pipeline that will still be left untouched by the DOE’s “alleged effort to pursue a more sustainable power sector.”

In a 2018 report on its assessment of the Philippine energy sector, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that compared to fossil fuel-based power generation, the permitting process for renewable energy development is more complex.

For one, the issuance of a Renewable Energy Service Contract must undergo a competitive selection process. Also, incentives for renewable energy such as duty-free importation and income tax reduction can be accessed only after the project has been issued the contract.

“The same regulations and permitting processes are applied to all renewable energy projects whether large or small scale, including renewable energy deployment in mini-grids to enhance energy access in areas that are not yet energized or that receive limited power supply,” the ADB said.

“The transaction cost and time for undergoing such lengthy regulatory processes can make smaller renewable energy projects unattractive to investors,” it adds.

Not enough

Still, the DOE has lists of “awarded” renewable projects, those that have been green lit and which include projects in predevelopment and ongoing development stages.

In terms of potential generating capacity, these projects total 11,284.92 MW of hydro; 814.2 MW of geothermal; 11,892.31 MW of solar; 5,760.58 MW of wind, and 182.03 MW of biomass. All in all, these represent 29,034.04 MW of additional capacity for the entire Philippines.

Assuming that all these projects are realized, they will cover almost a third of the additional 90,584 MW that the country needs in order to meet the projected peak electricity demand in 2040 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.

But in a clean energy scenario (CES), the Philippines needs more additional installed capacity at 93,482 MW.

“The high requirement for additional capacity in the CES is attributed to having more renewables in the system, specifically solar and wind that are considered variable capacity,” the PEP 2020-2040 explains.

This downplays a generator’s capacity as described by the manufacturers—thus called “installed capacity” or “nameplate capacity.” It is more practical to look at the dependable capacity, much more so with solar and wind, considering that these are intermittent and dependent respectively on the intensity of sunlight and the movement of air.

Also, the PEP 2020-2040 clarifies that the CES does not mean all-renewable. In fact, the scenario takes into account capacity contribution from natural gas—crude oil’s twin and coal’s less-polluting cousin—and “other low-carbon and highly efficient technologies.” This latter part suggests that coal remains in play.

Further, the two-decade plan tags the investment cost of the needed additional capacity under the BAU scenario at $104.7 billion. The cost of additional build needed for the CES is $124 billion, higher by 18 percent.

And this is partly why industry players balk at the idea of a swift and wholesale shift to clean energy, despite civil society’s assertion that the technologies and natural resources are readily available to make the transition.

Expensive technology

“I think, at the end of the day, there must be a commercial basis as to the choice between coal and [natural] gas for example or even renewables, and at the same time we are mindful of the power rates that we will charge to the consumers,” Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) chair Manuel V. Pangilinan says at a press briefing held last July.

Not only is Meralco the biggest electricity distributor in the Philippines, it is also building up a considerable presence in power generation.

“It’s alright to talk about renewables and gas, but if it translates into higher prices, that obviously will be met with some resistance, particularly politically,” Pangilinan points out.

Additionally, Pangilinan argues that the shift to renewables is a difficult choice, especially if the question of “who will pay for the cost of migration” is left unclear.

“I wish it were [an easy choice], but renewables don’t provide the kind of capacity that will supply the reserves that we need moving forward,” he adds. “I don’t think it’s a clear-cut case for renewables.”

In other words, the question is about balancing the cost against the pace of the energy shift. Currently, coal and gas cover Meralco’s baseload supply needs while renewables are primed to exclusively provide the company’s mid-merit requirements—which represent 29 percent of contracted capacity.

Meralco has also made a commitment to invest in and develop at least 1,500 MW of renewable energy projects over the next five to seven years.

Ray Espinosa, president of Meralco, points out that considering the prevailing sentiment to move away from coal, the burden of providing baseload supply falls on natural gas —now considered as the “transition fuel,” since it is cleaner than coal albeit still formed from fossils and thus rich in carbon.

Coal-free target

Indeed, other players like the Ayala group have set a goal of having their power-generation business coal-free by 2030. In 2019, AC Energy and Infrastructure Corp. completed the divestment of its 60-percent interest in the 632-MW GNPower Mariveles coal-fired plant in Bataan. This was sold to its partner, the Aboitiz group.

Ayala is in the process of offloading its 85-percent interest in the 552-MW GNPower Kauswagan coal-fired plant in Lanao del Norte; the remaining 35-percent stake in the 244-MW coal-fired plant of South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp. in Batangas, and the 40-percent stake in the 1,336-MW coal-fired plant of GNPower Dinginin in Bataan.

The Aboitiz group itself has announced a P190-billion investment program to achieve a 50-50 balance in its renewables business and its conventional thermal generator assets.

“If decarbonizing the system is the goal, Meralco cannot do it alone without working with the rest of the power industry and of course with the government,” Pangilinan said. “Government has got to participate in that transition, which will be painful if done in a short timeframe.”

Alas, P4P, the consumer welfare coalition, laments the continued nonmention of the energy sector in President Duterte’s latest and final State-of the Nation Address last month.

Achievable goal

According to the IEA, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to reach new record levels starting 2023 amid government spending shortfalls in the transition to clean energy, especially in emerging and developing economies.

“Since the COVID-19 crisis erupted, many governments may have talked about the importance of building back better for a cleaner future, but many of them are yet to put their money where their mouth is,” Fatih Birol, executive director of IEA, said in a statement.

“Despite increased climate ambitions, the amount of economic recovery funds being spent on clean energy is just a small sliver of the total,” Birol said.

Based on an analysis of 800 national policies including several that are implemented by the Philippine government, the agency found that governments have mobilized $16 trillion in fiscal support throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. However, only 2 percent or about $320 billion of the total is earmarked for clean energy transitions.

“Not only is clean energy investment still far from what’s needed to put the world on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century, it’s not even enough to prevent global emissions from surging to a new record,” Birol said.

Birol said the path to net-zero emission by 2050 “is narrow but still achievable,” but governments must act now by leading clean energy investment and deployment “to much greater heights beyond the [pandemic] recovery period.

This story, originally published by the Philippine Daily Inquirer, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters. 

Glaciares. El Adiós de los hielos.

No hay hielos eternos. Cuando algo dura más que nosotros nos parece que está siempre, pero el tiempo geológico es tan diferente al humano que hay palabras que no sirven. «El término hielo perpetuo es muy literario y bonito, pero no es real. Ni siquiera al planeta Tierra se le puede considerar perpetuo…». Ignacio López Moreno, investigador del Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC) nos recuerda que, a lo largo de la historia geológica, los glaciares han desaparecido y se han vuelto a formar, siguiendo las grandes fluctuaciones climáticas que se han ido sucediendo, helando y deshelando la Tierra. La diferencia es que ahora estamos aquí para verlo, pues «esta es la primera fase de retroceso glaciar generalizada que sucede en un planeta poblado». En algunas zonas, «mucha gente va a sentir las consecuencias de dicha desaparición o sencillamente nos vamos a entristecer por perder un elemento tan fascinante de nuestros paisajes». A la vez, «dado que el hielo es un archivo de información ambiental», añade Ánchel Belmonte, estudioso de las cuevas heladas del Pirineo, «la fusión de hielo glaciar o subsuperficial constituye una pérdida de información sobre el pasado de la Tierra». Y esa información nos permite entender los procesos ambientales actuales y futuros que acarrea el cambio climático. Por eso, antes de que se vuelvan agua, urge leer los mensajes que atesora. 

Los investigadores tienen cierta sensación de cuenta atrás. «Somos unos ‘desglaciados’, nuestros glaciares están próximos a desaparecer, pero todavía queda mucho trabajo científico por hacer…», dice López Moreno, recordando la expresión que le gusta usar de broma a su amigo y colega Jorge Luis Ceballos, que estudia los glaciares de Colombia. El glaciar de Monte Perdido acaba de dejar leer unos capítulos de su historia que han sorprendido al equipo liderado por Ana Moreno, investigadora del IPE. 

Se habían propuesto desvelar cada uno de los renglones del diario secreto del glaciar de Monte Perdido y, entre las incógnitas congeladas, estaba su edad y también algunas claves sobre su futuro. «Ha sido una sorpresa encontrar hielo tan antiguo», asegura Moreno. «Modelos teóricos del movimiento del hielo en un glaciar como Monte Perdido nos hablaban de unos 200 años», explica. 

En 2017 subieron hasta allí para hacerse con una columna de hielo que se convirtió en el primer sondeo de hielo continental extraído en la península ibérica. Aplicando la técnica de carbono 14 a pequeños restos orgánicos conservados en el hielo, han podido determinar que este glaciar está presente desde, al menos, los últimos 2.000 años. Aunque retrocedió, siguió formando parte del paisaje en los periodos cálidos de época romana y durante la Edad Media, sin llegar a desaparecer. Ahora, la situación es otra. 

Porque a lo inesperado de encontrar vestigios tan antiguos se añade la novedad de comprobar que al diario de este glaciar también le faltan hojas, las más recientes. Echar en falta niveles altos de hollín, mercurio o el plomo asociado a la gasolina -el sello de la actividad humana actual- indica que en un siglo se ha fundido el hielo acumulado en los últimos 600 años. Esta enorme pérdida de hielo reciente «nos habla de una fusión muy rápida -dice Ana Moreno-; ahora mismo prácticamente no hay acumulación». 

Cuenta atrás. 

Los continuados estudios del grupo de López Moreno sobre los glaciares pirenaicos llevan la cuenta y detallan que «desde mediados del siglo XIX ha desaparecido el 90% de la superficie cubierta por hielo (había mas de 2.200 hectáreas); en 1985 quedaban unas 800 hectáreas de glaciares y ahora apenas superan las 200. El número de glaciares ha disminuido de 39 a 21». Entre 2011 y 2020, «lejos de parar esa tendencia -destaca este experto-, se ha perdido el 21% de la superficie helada y tres glaciares se han considerado extintos». En este breve periodo, «los glaciares han perdido de media 7,1 metros de espesor de hielo (la altura de una casa de dos plantas) y las pérdidas en algunos sectores concretos llegan casi a los 30 metros. Cuando medimos el espesor de hielo que queda, apenas encontramos sectores que superen los 20 metros». La conclusión es evidente: «Los glaciares van a desaparecer del Pirineo en muy pocas décadas, tan solo algunos quedarán como formas muy residuales». 

Los investigadores de varios centros de investigación españoles, liderados desde el Pirenaico de Ecología, integrantes del proyecto ‘Explora Paleoice’ que ha puesto edad al glaciar de Monte Perdido notaban cerca ese tic-tac: «Sentíamos que había una oportunidad con este proyecto porque es verdad que la situación está cambiando deprisa», señala Ana Moreno que, con sus ojos de geóloga, comprende que «no es más que una consecuencia del aumento de temperaturas global. Otros paisajes aparecerán y otros glaciares volverán… ¡en unos miles de años!». 

En el Pirineo hay por ahora numerosas cuevas con depósitos de hielo, que también es objeto de estudio. «Ahí parece que está más protegido -indica Moreno-. Aún así, en todas se ve una importante tasa de fusión y pensamos que acabará desapareciendo». 

Investigadores como ella o como su compañero del IPE Ignacio López Moreno son conscientes de que «los glaciares que estudiamos actualmente van a cambiar y a degradarse de forma muy rápida en las próximas décadas, pero también, desde un punto de vista científico, es superinteresante estar en una de las zonas del planeta donde podemos observar y estudiar las últimas fases de nuestros últimos glaciares». Además, «este proceso nos permite ver cómo la vida ocupa estos espacios anteriormente helados. En el Pirineo se están formando lagos que son una oportunidad única de ver cómo nuevas especies se van sucediendo y asentando en ellos, la formación de suelos y la llegada de vegetación son cuestiones de gran interés». 

Atentamente sigue el nacimiento de estos ibones, hijos del deshielo, Javier San Román, geólogo y coautor junto a José Luis Piedrafita del libro ‘Glaciares del Pirineo’. El ibón del Aneto, a 3.105 metros, que en 2015 ya medía 0,05 hectáreas, ocupaba en 2019 seis veces más (0,3), con una profundidad de 4 o 5 metros. Para él, en medio de la tristeza de saber que «esa magnífica masa de hielo que estás contemplando, con sus bandeados, grietas y bloques de roca incrustados, va a desaparecer», dar la bienvenida a estos lagos que están surgiendo donde antes estaba el glaciar es como «un premio de consolación, una especie de reencarnación». En el Pirineo «hay pocos casos recientes de aparición de lagos, y son pequeños, pero en los Alpes es una pasada -refiere San Román-. En el glaciar del Ródano, por ejemplo, ha aparecido un lago de unas 10 hectáreas en los últimos 15 años». 

Los glaciares están retrocediendo en prácticamente todo el planeta, «solamente en algunos sitios donde las temperaturas aún son bajas (a pesar de que hayan aumentado) y donde además la precipitación se ha incrementado han mostrado balances de masa positivos», señala López Moreno. Es el caso de algunas zonas en el norte de Noruega. Pero los glaciares tropicales y los situados en latitudes bajas del hemisferio norte, como los del Pirineo, están en una situación crítica y desaparecerán en las próximas décadas. «Los glaciares de mayor entidad situados en latitudes más elevadas son lógicamente los que perdurarán más tiempo e incluso podrán superar los escenarios más pesimistas de calentamiento global», prevé. 

Estos cambios tienen consecuencias. «El hielo glaciar es de vital importancia por muchas razones -destaca Belmonte, que es coordinador científico del Geoparque Mundial de la Unesco Sobrarbe-Pirineos-. Millones de personas en todo el mundo dependen de los recursos hídricos que genera su fusión estacional, particularmente en Asia (glaciares del Himalaya) y Sudamérica (de los Andes). La disminución de los glaciares se traduce allí en una menor disponibilidad de agua para riego y boca». López Moreno añade que «al mismo tiempo se incrementarán los riesgos naturales asociados a avenidas fluviales por desbordamientos en lagunas de montaña, debidos a ritmos de fusión muy acelerados, o por colapsos de glaciares que pueden represar ríos, liberándose posteriormente grandes cantidades de agua». 

Además, la fusión de los glaciares impacta directamente en el ascenso del nivel del mar, un problema de gran envergadura que no tardará en ser acuciante. «El calentamiento global va a hacernos más ‘daño’ y ‘antes’ por la inundación de playas, deltas, ciudades…», augura San Román. 

En zonas con glaciares más pequeños, como el Pirineo, «la principal implicación es la pérdida de un paisaje muy característico de nuestras montañas, la imposibilidad de estudiar un archivo ambiental muy valioso y, sobre todo, una evidencia muy palpable de que el clima de nuestras montañas se está calentando», valora López Moreno. 

Esa media de 7 metros de espesor de hielo, en algunos sitios hasta 30 metros, perdida en los glaciares del Pirineo entre 2011 y 2020 representa décadas o siglos de registro ambiental que ya no se podrán analizar. Por ello, «mientras quede hielo», es tan interesante estudiarlo y los científicos instan a guardar parte congelada para los investigadores del futuro. 

Deshielo global 

Nuestro planeta gotea, pierde hielo a velocidad creciente. Un grupo de investigación británico de la Universidad de Leeds ha constatado cómo se acelera la fusión del hielo en todo el mundo. Es el primer estudio sobre la pérdida global de hielo que se basa en observaciones de satélite, concretamente de ERS, Envisat y CryoSat y de las misiones de la Agencia Espacial Europea Copernicus Sentinel-1 y 2. El trabajo concreta que, entre 1994 y 2017 se perdieron 28 billones de toneladas de hielo, a un ritmo de 1,3 cada año. La velocidad del deshielo aumenta en mayor medida en la Antártida y Groenlandia. Y, a pesar de que los 215.000 glaciares de montaña que existen almacenan tan solo el 1% del volumen total de hielo de la Tierra, han contribuido a casi una cuarta parte de las pérdidas de hielo globales durante el periodo de estudio. 

La mayor parte del hielo de la Tierra se encuentra en los glaciares de los casquetes polares (Antártida y Groenlandia) -los icebergs o témpanos son fragmentos desprendidos del frente de glaciares que desembocan en el mar-. En menor medida, en los glaciares de montaña (Himalaya, Andes y otras cordilleras). Hay también hielo bajo la superficie terrestre atrapado en suelos permanentemente helados (permafrost), particularmente en latitudes altas del hemisferio norte. A la lista hay que añadir las «acumulaciones menores, pero de gran valor ambiental y científico, del interior de ciertas cavidades, las cuevas heladas», apunta Ánchel Belmonte. Finalmente, «tenemos las banquisas, el mar congelado, cuyo deshielo no contribuye directamente al ascenso del nivel del mar, como sí ocurre con la fusión de los hielos continentales, sea cual sea su ubicación». Sin embargo, puede haber una influencia indirecta, según señala Isobel Lawrence, investigadora del Centro de Observación y Modelado Polar de Leeds: «Una de las funciones clave del hielo marino del Ártico es reflejar la radiación solar, lo que ayuda a mantener fresco el Ártico. A medida que el hielo marino se contrae, los océanos y la atmósfera absorben más energía solar, lo que hace que el Ártico se caliente más rápido que cualquier otro lugar del planeta». Se calcula que por cada centímetro que suba el nivel del mar, aproximadamente un millón de habitantes de zonas bajas de la Tierra estarán en riesgo de tener que desplazarse. 

A todo ello se suma que unos y otros hielos son parte del medio físico de múltiples ecosistemas, por lo que su desaparición compromete la existencia de numerosas especies. Y la fusión del permafrost tiene consecuencias particulares; para Ignacio López Moreno, «quizás el impacto en desestabilizar infraestructuras construidas sobre él, el retroceso espectacular de la costa en muchas zonas litorales del Ártico por erosión y la emisión del metano almacenado en los suelos helados, que es un gas de efecto invernadero muy potente, sean las más significativas». 

This story, originally published by Heraldo de Aragón, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

In A Light That Is Leaving

Eco-anarchists are fighting for the preservation of Germany’s forests

In the woods between Cologne and Aachen, secrets are whispered, communications are encrypted, meetings are arranged by nightfall, and barricades are constantly built and destroyed at every entrance point. Here, it always feels like the apocalypse is about to occur.

There are people living in this forest—somewhere between ten and one hundred, no one will say—and they are waiting it out until the inevitable “Day X,” when they will be evicted, their treehouse homes destroyed by the police, and the last of the forest will be cut down forever.

Hambacher Forest in Germany is home to a group of eco-anarchists fighting against Germany’s second biggest power company, RWE.

The threat of the neighboring lignite mine being expanded looms closer as more and more trees are cut down every year. The occupation is reflective of a larger ongoing political and environmental conflict over brown coal in the country. While generating 35% of its energy from renewable resources and planning to phase out nuclear power by 2022, Germany still deforests to mine lignite.

But there is no big battle scene to be found in “Hambi” as it is affectionately known, just the slow tedium of a constant struggle. Treehouses are built and evicted every few months. People come and go, and in between arrests and clashes, there is a lot of waiting around for the end of the world.

On September 13, 2018, what the activists have named “Day X,” or Eviction Day, finally arrived. The police began a massive eviction of the area in what is estimated to be one of the largest and longest police operations in North Rhine Westphalia. Special forces and police systematically evicted and destroyed the treehouses and arrested activists for 5 days before a journalist accidentally died, halting the process temporarily. The area was marked as a danger zone, which restricted the rights of the occupants, and prevented civilians from entering the forest.

At the end of the eviction, the activists were already planning to rebuild the occupation and continue resisting, but the future of Hambacher is worrying. Day X will probably come eventually.

Already, there is just 10% left of the 12,000 year-old natural resource it once was. Much like the rest of our planet, it walks a critical precipice. “In a light that is already leaving” is more the story of the frustration we feel when we look at the state of the world around us, when it isn’t enough to share a Facebook link or stand in the street with a protest sign. What else do we have, if not our need to keep fighting in the face of the end of the world? And why must we wait for the end of the world to act?

‘So we wait, breeding

mood, making music

of decline. We sit down

in the smell of the past

and rise in a light

that is already leaving.’

– Rita Dove, November for Beginners

This story, originally published by Are We Europe, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

Lost in Space Junk

They say what goes up must come down. When it comes to space, however, this expression doesn’t ring so true with space debris now reaching crisis proportions. 

In fact, there are currently around 28,600 debris objects tracked by space surveillance networks and many more objects not able to be tracked at all.

However, regulating the use of space and keeping countries accountable for debris, is no easy feat, said Steven Freeland, Emeritus Professor at Western Sydney University and Professorial Fellow at Bond University specialising in Space Law.

“I’m not saying it’s impossible, and that we should just throw our hands up and wait for disasters to happen,” he said. “There’s a lot of discussion and a lot of work being done already, but it’s not easy and that’s really the point.”

Although Australia is not a top contender in the global space industry, Celine D’Orgeville, Professor at the Australian National University, sees Australia having a strong political influence in global discussions. 

“There is room for Australia to take a little bit of leadership and guide this conversation at the policy level, I don’t know if Australia will do it but there is an opportunity,” she said.

As each year more satellites are sent up to space, our reliance upon this technology increases. From Wi-Fi to online banking, if a major collision was to knock out functioning satellites our lives would be dramatically changed, Professor Freeland said. 

“So, to the extent we continue on a ‘business as usual’ basis to create unacceptable amounts of additional debris to the point where we create irreversible damage, or at least for generations and generations, then that will have devastating effects on the world, the economy, lifestyles, infrastructure; in essence, everything about the functioning of our society may collapse.”

While countries are entering legal discussions in an attempt to regulate the use of space, researchers are investigating potential ways to mitigate collisions and ‘clean up’. 

However, even new technologies can’t escape the inherently political nature of space exploration. 

Professor Freeland said many countries are concerned.

“If you develop the technology to clean up the debris – and that technology will be essential – we still need to deal with the lingering question as to how to prevent you from using that technology to grab my ‘live’ satellite, upon which I am dependent, which would of course, compromise my ability to function,” he said.

“The issue is intensely legal and it’s intensely political. You can’t separate the two.”

Professor D’Orgeville said doing technology in space is not difficult, but it’s something we can do and learn to do better.

“Doing it well and preserving space, that’s the political dimension and it’s definitely, from my point of view as a scientist, more complicated,” she said.

This story, originally published by Central News, a multi-platform news service based at the University of Technology Sydney, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

How deforestation in the Amazon and global warming are related to droughts and flooding in Rio Grande do Sul

A boat in a flooded street in Montenegro during the July floods: 2020 had various extreme climate events in Rio Grande do Sul. CREDIT: JEFFERSON BOTEGA / AGENCIA RBS

Civil Defense estimates billion-real losses due to extreme climate events in Rio Grande do  Sul (RS). The most recurring among those events is drought, which has struck the state hard in the last two years. According to the institution, between October 2019 and January 2020, 105 municipalities declared a state of emergency due to drought, with estimated losses of R$ 3.2 billion to the RS economy regarding both private and public properties. The 2020-2021 scenario is no different – in the same time period, 107 municipalities entered a state of emergency, with losses estimated to be R$ 2.6 billion. 

News of natural disasters have been commonplace to the RS population, due to lack of rain or due to damage caused by excessive rain, another very common kind of extreme event. A remarkable example can be seen in Camargo, which has about 3,000 inhabitants and is  situated in the state’s northern area. In February 2020, five days after declaring a state of emergency due to drought, the municipality was struck by heavy rain and wind which unroofed 70 houses. The state of emergency was renewed for different reasons. 

“We had already been having issues with lack of water and great losses in agricultural production. Practically 70% of the municipality’s revenue comes from the primary sector. We  had already been dealing with that hardship and now, tomorrow we’ll be declaring a state of emergency and disaster even, I believe, due to the heavy wind”, declared then the mayor at  the time, Eliani Trentin. 

Climatologists believe that extreme situations should become even more commonplace in the following years. That is one of the various effects caused by global climate change. An analysis from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) published on  January 14 showed that global temperatures rose 1.02°C in 2020 in relation to the moving  averages from the years 1951 and 1980, which makes last year the hottest ever measured by the institution. 

“The previous record warm year, 2016, received a significant boost from a strong El Niño [a change in water surface temperature distribution in the Pacific Ocean]. The lack of a similar assist from El Niño this year is evidence that the background climate continues to warm due  to greenhouse gases”, stated Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt in  a press release. [Obs.: busquei e utilizei a frase original do diretor] 

Beyond global warming, the Brazilian scenario contributes significantly to the extreme events with deforestation, according to climatologists. The deforestation rate disclosed by the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) grew 9.5% in a year, reaching 11,000  square kilometers in deforested area between August 2019 and July 2020 – a time interval which calculates the complete rain/drought cycle. The goal proposed at the Copenhagen Climate Convention (in Denmark) in 2009, which was undersigned by Brazil, was less than a third of said number (around 3,000 square kilometers). 

According to Francisco Aquino, a climatologist from the Geography Department of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), deforestation in the Amazon is directly correlated to the drought seen in Rio Grande do Sul. 

“The humidity circulation in the atmosphere has been undergoing changes, and so have the water regimes. Adding it to human activity, this causes an environmental crisis. ‘Crisis’ is a good word to use at the moment.”, the climatologist states. 

Aquino muses that excessive deforestation causes changes in the water regime – the set of variations in rains and rivers – all over Brazil, not just in the Amazon. That is due to the humidity in northern Brazil helping keep an equilibrium between rain and drought periods. 

“The Amazon has often supplied the south region and gotten a water deficit. The humidity it  creates, right now, may not be enough to provide for itself. What the scientific community has been warning is that we’re reaching the limit for the systems to augment these flaws and  for the ecosystems to collapse. They won’t be able to recover if we don’t stop logging. We’ve  got record numbers in the Amazon due to lack of oversight, since somebody does logging  and then creates a fire to clear the area. The fire spins out of control due to the region being  drier than it should be.”

Meteorologist Cátia Valente, who is responsible for the Rio Grande do Sul Civil Defense Situation Room, muses that the connection between both facts may not be easily noticeable. According to her, peak deforestation periods are small in comparison to the time scale of  climate change. However, Cátia emphasizes that extreme events are becoming the rule: 

“They have been more and more frequent and intense. Whether they’re related to climate change, science can say.” 

Cátia notices that the presence of the La Niña phenomenon, which causes a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters, has had an enormous impact on rain distribution in Rio Grande do Sul in the last few years. 

“In the summer of 2020, we had a prolonged drought, which extended into autumn. La Niña acted during the spring, disfavoring rain once again. We’ve had a few big rain events, in the  northern part of the state, but they were one-offs. Last year, we did not recover from the  water deficit that had been happening since the summer. Thus far, we’ve had a hydrological deficit of 300-800 mm accrued in the state”, the meteorologist clarifies. 

Cátia is one of the people responsible for sounding the alarm for extreme climate events, which people can receive through text messages on their cell phones. Forecasting the next  months, she declares that the rain from the beginning of January improved the situation slightly, but the state’s water system “continues to be compromised”. 

“At least until the middle of next year, we’ll be having irregular rain and water deficit issues. The outlook is that the situation could improve starting this year’s second half, with the Pacific Ocean being less cold. At least until the middle of the year, the scene doesn’t look  good”, she states. 

Meanwhile, professor Francisco Aquino notes the necessity of enhancing environmental oversight, not simply to reduce deforestation in the Amazon, but also to recompose the climate system as a whole – which includes reducing the damage of the drought in Rio  Grande do Sul. 

“A forest like the Amazon doesn’t have big stretches of drought and dryness. It is exuberant due to refuelling and recomposing itself. What’s been happening in the last four decades is that every year we cause damage. When public policy is favorable towards oversight, 

towards control, you realize that the system recomposes itself, it wants to improve. When we loosen oversight and control, the system degrades swiftly”, Aquino states. 

The impact of climate change in practice: see, in the gallery below, extreme events captured by GZH photographers in Rio Grande do Sul throughout 2020 

Extreme climate events, including rapid yet violent storms, cause effects on agriculture that  are felt even in the lives of urban area dwellers. In June 2020, the effect of drought on the  RS per capita income was to the tune of 3.3%, directly affecting the production of soy  (-27.7%), corn (-19.3%) and tobacco (-22%). Produce such as sweetcorn, spinach and  green beans had reduced harvests due to lack of rain, which raised their prices in supermarket shelves. 

“It affects general biodiversity. The produce is more expensive. You’re going to plan the net  50 years knowing you’ll be spending more money on insurance, on losses. Every farmer, when they go look for more financing, more insurance, faces greater risks. The bank says  there is greater risk because climate change is real. It’s automatic”, says Aquino. 

The climatologist muses that the pandemic shows predatory relationships towards the environment will worsen these problems in the years to come. 

“The pandemic is a fruit of deforestation, of environmental issues, of general degradation. It’s a typical example of how detached our lifestyle is from the planet’s reality. For some people, we may have investments and profitability, using natural resources as aggressively as possible, without thinking of tomorrow. This will utterly doom us all.” 

Cátia Valente also proposes that environmental education is essential to improve conservation efforts and reduce damage to nature, but that it will bring a fresh coat of belonging to new generations. 

“The community must feel like they belong to the environment. We must explain what  climate change is, why and how it happens and, at the same time, make it so the neighborhood kid knows all the garbage they use goes somewhere and may influence stronger rainfall to come and all its consequences. I believe in environmental education and in the actions of the community, in the neighborhoods, in the more practical sense. Science needs to work more in management, with public policies, bringing universities to the decision  making process, with public and private initiatives”, she states.

This story, originally published by Zero Hora in Brazil, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.

Climate change is the front-page story of the rest of our lives

David Callaway is founder of Callaway Climate Insights, a former editor of USA Today, and former president of the World Editors Forum.

San Francisco – The text from my local police department came without warning or detail – mandatory evacuation. A fire had started in the hill above my neighborhood minutes ago, and suddenly, early on a sunny Thursday morning last month, we were told to run for our lives. 

Minutes later, another text. Fire out. To be honest, we hadn’t even had time to grab a bag. We were lucky. 

Climate change is the story of displacement and migration. Tens of thousands of people in the last few years around the world have lost their homes and their loved ones to global warming. Wildfires in Australia and the Western United States. Killer floods in China and Germany. Heatwaves across Europe and Canada. Stronger hurricanes and typhoons. Longer droughts and water running out, even as rising seas threaten to drown coastlines and island nations.  

Like it or not, climate change will be the front-page story for the rest of our lives. For journalists, the challenge of telling that story with facts and fairness is paramount to the global effort required to transition our economies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. 

As climate disasters have soared in the last few years, so has news coverage, reflecting a public interest that has begun to manifest itself in national elections as well as protests across the globe. Large news organizations such as The Guardian, The Washington Post and the South China Morning Post have built dedicated teams to the climate beat. 

Smaller, start-up news companies have formed to focus solely on the science, politics, and business of global warming. Climate Home News in the UK. Eco-Business.com in Singapore. Inside Climate News in the U.S. After 40 years in major newsrooms around the world, I’ve even started my own newsletter, Callaway Climate Insights, to focus on investing in climate solutions, from electric vehicles to off-shore wind. 

For all the activity, the news world’s attention to climate change is still in its infancy. Politicians still argue that it is a myth. People distrust the science, as we’ve seen with Covid. Some claim it’s advocacy journalism. Only when global warming comes to their doors do many people react. 

There has never been a greater need for journalism that has impact. Such as the Wall Street Journal coverage of the California fires two years ago, which found that the Paradise fire that destroyed a town and killed dozens was caused by the downed power line of public utility PG&E. 

Or the Guardian’s new series this summer, Climate Crimes, which covers the role Big Oil has played in polluting the atmosphere. Or the Washington Post, which won a Pulitzer Prize for a series on what would happen to the world if it exceeded the temperatures scientists said we must stay below. 

Or more recently, the decision by Britain’s Channel 4 to broadcast a controversial videotape of an Exxon lobbyist boasting that the company’s agreement to discuss a tax on carbon emissions was simply a stalling tactic. All forced attention to the issue. 

Behind the headlines, a wall of money is beginning to emerge for climate solutions from investors big and small who see the threat, and the opportunity, of the next few decades. More than $5 trillion has been invested in sustainable assets since 2018, according to the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance.

That money is looking for entrepreneurs who can find ways to create networks of charging stations across the world for electric vehicles. Or remove plastics from the ocean. Or suck carbon from the atmosphere and bury it deep in the earth. 

Companies in battery technology, off-show wind farms, solar products, and plant-based food are going public and rewarding investors for their support. The stories of these companies, the winners and the losers, and which ones will be the next global leaders as the world begins to shift, will be written by journalists. 

In less than six weeks, in early November, the United Nations will convene a global summit called COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, which is being billed as the last chance for the world’s countries to agree on climate goals. Those include eliminating coal usage, adapting electric vehicles worldwide, and support for poorer countries most affected by the ravages of global warming. 

Democratic governments respond to the will of their people, which will need to hold them to account in the coming decades to make the changes so important to mitigating the worst of global warming yet to come. That will is reflected and often can be raised by journalists telling important stories, with facts and science. 

How news organizations respond to this challenge will in no small part dictate the credibility they are given by the free world in coming years as the climate emergency comes to all of our doors.

This story, written by David Callaway, the founder of Callaway Climate Insights, has been shared as part of World News Day 2021, a global campaign to highlight the critical role of fact-based journalism in providing trustworthy news and information in service of humanity. #JournalismMatters.